WASHINGTON DC – Following Claudia Sheinbaum’s landslide victory in Mexico, where she has promised to continue Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s policies, the relationship with the United States now hinges on what Americans decide in November, when Donald Trump, with his anti-Mexican and anti-immigrant rhetoric, could secure a second term.
Every 12 years, presidential elections coincide between Mexico and the United States, countries that share the longest and busiest border in the world, as well as two economies dependent on each other and undeniable family ties: some 38 million citizens of Mexican origin live in the United States.
Mexico’s first female president will assume power on October 1, a month before Americans go to the polls on November 5, and will have to deal with the campaign in the United States and with the president who is elected for the next four years, whether it be Joe Biden or Trump.
“Mexico and Mexicans are going to be a central theme in the US campaign, and it will be important to see how Sheinbaum responds to the rhetoric,” Jason Marczak, vice president of the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank, told EFE.
Sheinbaum’s relationship with the US
Sheinbaum swept Sunday’s elections with nearly 60% of the vote, surpassing even the results of her political mentor, outgoing President López Obrador. Her party, Morena, a nationalist left-wing party, will enjoy a large majority in Congress, giving it the power to amend the Constitution.
Marczak believes that the new president’s policy toward the United States “will follow the same path as Mexico’s current policy, with some adjustments.”
López Obrador (2018-2024) has cooperated closely with Washington on migration issues, deploying the National Guard to stop migrants and accepting the return of undocumented immigrants from third countries.
According to his critics, in exchange he allegedly got the Democratic Biden administration to turn a blind eye to the Mexican president’s constant criticism of the press, the judiciary, and the electoral authorities in his country.
Sheinbaum will insist, like her predecessor, on the need to address the root causes of migration in the continent and curb the flow of American weapons to tackle violence in Mexico.
She is also a supporter of the USMCA free trade agreement, under which Mexico has become the United States’ top trading partner and which will be up for review in 2026.
The president-elect, an environmental scientist by profession, seems more in favor of renewable energy than López Obrador, who has received criticism from Washington for his support of fossil fuels.
“With the United States there will be a relationship of friendship, mutual respect and equality as it has been until now and we will always defend the Mexicans who are on the other side of the border,” he declared in his victory speech.
Biden, who has tried to maintain a cordial relationship with López Obrador, called Sheinbaum on Monday to congratulate her and offered to strengthen the relationship to “boost democracy, security and prosperity in both countries.”
What if Trump wins?
But according to polls, Sheinbaum’s counterpart in the Oval Office could be Trump starting next January. This would open up an uncertain scenario: would the relationship be destroyed, or would pragmatism prevail?
The Republican candidate is campaigning on his old proposal to build a border wall with Mexico and promises to carry out the largest deportation of undocumented migrants in history.
During his term (2017-2021), Trump forced Mexico to toughen its immigration policy through tariff threats, although he later forged a good personal relationship with López Obrador, to the point that the Mexican took a long time to recognize Biden’s victory in 2020.
“If the agreement between Trump and López Obrador showed us anything, it’s that things can be more pragmatic and less explosive than we expect,” notes Gema Kloppe-Santamaría, an international relations expert at George Washington University.
The expert says, however, that Sheinbaum “does not have a populist personality” like Trump and López Obrador, and publicly she is “more restrained”.
The key, according to Marczak, lies in the strong electoral support Sheinbaum has received, because it will project her as a “strong leader” in Washington.